A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
